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One Day To Brexit Vote

Posted with permission and written by Craig Hemke, TFMetals Report (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)


With the Brexit vote coming up tomorrow, today
we should take a moment to consider what should happen with gold
following the outcome.


The first thing you need to know is that this is
NOT a done deal. The assumption since last Thursday is that Brexit will
fail…and it likely will. The City of London almost always gets what
The City of London wants. To think that the hoi polloi will be allowed
to advance an agenda that is NOT in The City’s interests is almost
unfathomable, sort of like those believing that a new Glass-Steagall
will be passed one day in the U.S.. The Financial-Political Complex
overpowers everything through bribery, greed and corruption so to think
that popular opinion would be allowed to override them?…Well, it’s a
long shot.


That said, the polls remain close, and be sure to
check this from ZH. As you know, ole Turd knows a little about
bookmaking so, to me, this makes perfect sense. Essentially, the
bookmaker simply desires equal amounts of money on each side of the
wager. The amount of individual bets tells you something about the
supposed “smart money” but it can be misleading. What this ZH post shows
is that there is a huge amount of individual bets on Brexit but an
equally huge amount of money…in much larger chunks…on Bremain. Now
why would that be? Does the “smart money” know something that the
“squares” do not? Or is someone attempting to influence opinion by
placing big bets in order to drive the odds toward Bremain? This is an
interesting question to consider in the remaining hours before the vote. 


And here’s yet another major English newspaper coming out with an endorsement of Brexit: http://j.mp/28OBfjO


And don’t forget who reads newspapers and which
is the most likely demographic to turn out in large numbers…old(er)
people. And which group is most likely to reject the EU in favor of
British “patriotism”? Old(er) people. Just sayin’.


So, again, this is far from a done deal, regardless of The City’s desires. Sit tight and be ready. Tomorrow will be fun!


To that end, let’s now talk about gold and the
impact of the vote on paper gold “prices”. It will be easier to discuss
this verbally and we’ll attempt to do so in today’s podcast which, God
willing, I’ll be able to post before 8:00 pm EDT.


Here’s where ole Turd stands…and this is NOT
because “Turd is just a permabull who always says BTFD”. Everything and
every scenario says gold is going to rally, NOT plummet. Why? Let’s list
a few of the reasons:


  1. How much “Brexit risk premium” was pumped into gold in the first
    place? Gold was $1213 and down nearly $100 from its highs before the
    June BLSBS put an end to the Fed Goon Jawboning Parade. After the BLSBS,
    it closed June 3 at $1243. It then rallied over the next two weeks,
    anticipating a dovish FOMC and was $1284 when the Fedlines were released
    one week ago today. How much of that rally was FOMC-related and how
    much was Brexit-related? Maybe 80/20? Maybe. In fact, Brexit really only
    entered as a legitimate possibility early last week. So, considering
    that gold is now $50 off its peak last Thursday, I think the “Brexit
    risk premium” is already done, gone and out.
  2. So this actually puts gold DOWN $16 or 1.3% since the extremely
    dovish and dissentless Fedlines of last week! What? That’s crazy!! All
    this does is once again prove the old adage that, if you want to make
    money trading the metals, you must always “sell some when everything
    looks great and buy some when everything looks terrible”.
  3. From an HFT-algo perspective, EITHER vote scenario should be gold
    bullish. Why? A Brexit vote will dump the euro but surge the yen. This
    would/could/might blow the USDJPY all the way to and through the 101
    target we’ve been discussing. Bond futures will soar worldwide, too, as
    “investors seek the safe haven of fixed income”. These two combined
    should drive heavy HFT gold futures buying. But what about Bremain? If
    this occurs, the Euro will rally…at least it should. And the euro is
    about 60% of the POSX. A 2-3 point rally in the Euro would drive the
    POSX back toward 92. After an initial shock, the HFTs and smart human
    money managers everywhere will begin to focus upon the tumbling Pig and
    Fed dovishness…as they should have been doing every day since last
    Wednesday…and you’ll get a quick bounce and recovery from any selling.
  4. And, in the end, simply look at price and history.

“What does that mean, Turd? Please elaborate on point #4.” OK, I’ll be glad to.


Recall what happened in May. Gold surged toward
the critical $1308 point? What did The Cartel Banks do? They desperately
capped and capped and then brazenly used all of the Fed Goon jawboning
as an excuse to ram prices back down and, MOST IMPORTANTLY, cover over
100,000 naked shorts BEFORE The Fed actually announced that they were
powerless and neutered. So, as price rallied on the actual news of June 3
and June 15, The Banks were able to control price and keep it below
$1308 by issuing back out the same old paper that they had issued in
April. So, what has the past 4 days been about? It’s the exact same


The Cartel Banks have used the Bremain sentiment
since the Cox assassination as cover to raid price, drive Specs back
out and cover shorts. That way, when price begins to rally again
regardless of the outcome, they’ll have shorts to issue as they attempt
again to keep price below $1308. See how that works? Just yesterday, we
saw an overt raid of $20 and an open interest decline of nearly 10,000
contracts…back to 571,000. With prices down a little again today, who
knows how many more nervous-nelly Specs are heading to the exits ahead
of the vote.


The point is, just as in May, The Banks KNOW
what is going to happen next. The paper price of gold is going to rally
in the days and weeks to come, regardless of the outcome of tomorrow’s
vote. Therefore, just as in May, they are desperately using any and
every opportunity to scare out some Specs and cover some shorts. Got it?
See what I mean? Again, we’ll try to make some sense of all this in
today’s podcast.


For now, gold is down $5 as I type and, earlier
today, came very close to tapping its 50-day MA and the lower band of
our channel…which we’ve been mentioning as a likelihood since Sunday
evening. What’s my strategy? Sit back, relax and watch the fireworks. If
I can remember tonight, I think I’ll even order another shiny ounce of
gold from JMB or GoldenEagle. I mean, why not? Get it while you can!
Again, I absolutely expect the 50-day to hold and that the
hand-crafted/painted double top on the chart to fail. My target next
remains $1340.


And one more thing…As the world moves on from “All Brexit, All The Time”, I though that this little tweet was interesting:


Have a great day.





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One Day To Brexit Vote

Posted with permission and written by Craig Hemke, TFMetals Report (CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)

First published here: http://j.mp/28QlQDP